Actually, for most consumers, whether MS supports their Operating System is only of tangential relevance; for most people, support for their machine would come from the manufacturer.
Of course windows updates and other such things will eventually stop, but by the time they do, that OS should have fallen into such disuse that it's no longer a target. For example, take Windows 3.1. It's unsecure, but not insecure, because you aren't going to find anything on the net that can infect it anymore. (On the flipside, you aren't likely to find any sites that work properly with IE 5.5, which is the latest version 3.1 can run).
What exactly does it mean when they "drop support"? For the majority, it means they will longer receive software updates from Windows Update. The other changes are only relevant as a direct consumer of Microsoft. The vast majority of people are not direct consumers of Microsoft, instead they got their copy of Windows with their PC. OEM installations of Windows are supported by the OEM, not by MS, because most OEMs fill their installations with so much crap it's no longer recognizable to it's creator, like frankenstein's monster wearing a wig.
The repurcussions are more long term. New devices released after a versions of windows is no longer supported are far less likely to have drivers and other software written for that OS.
With that phrase, What they mean when they say that it's only available to commercial customers is that direct technical support from Microsoft is only available to commercial customers. That is, consumers will still get updates, and so forth, but you can't call MS for support without a rather hefty charge. This doesn't affect most people anyway because most people are running a copy of windows provided by an OEM for which support is their responsibility. Companies of course have their own IT departments which would normally work with MS and their other software and hardware vendors to solve problems; that is who this affects, since they no longer get No-charge incident support.
Calling MS for Windows XP activation will still be free, but that is part of their "get genuine" program.