Which ever Distro becomes king, I think the only way for any one of them to become a real boom in the market is to create a universal system that understands how to *automatically* install things and put it in a controlled environment. Controlled meaning that you can build on the OS, but don't make folks and at the same time make sure software (such as OpenOffice) is auto-install compatible, without the need of Sudo. Although I guess Auto-Sudo would be a good idea.
Windows is a extreme case of software environment control, since they don't really listen to experts like Chris Pirillo.
Just take the complications out a OS and you got something. Don't care if Micro has been around for years, their getting terrible.
Agreed, Installing programs on Ubuntu (it's what I use) can be tricky business. Last time I ended up with at least several broken dependencies. And yes M$ is getting worse all time. Many people are now turning to Apple.
However, I don't think apple will make a "dent" of any sort if they continue with their higher prices, and not allowing the OS to run on any other system but a apple branded one.
I don't think this will make too much of a difference for Apple. Some experts say it will actually help them beat M$. People love Mac computers, and Macs are the "in-style" just like ipods. Macs today are basically the same as PCs in hardware. Because of this the Mac OS X will work perfectly on a PC as long as you select compatible hardware before you build your rig. Many people rave how much Linux, BSD and Unix are much more stable than Windows. What most people don't know though is that the Mac OS X is a Unix variant (BSD actually). I actually talked to a lady recently who is a Mac user and has been involved in computers since the early 80's and she didn't even know this. Because the OSX is unix-based it has many of the advantages of Unix.
Apple hasn't been doing this good selling their computers since the very early 90's. I think Apple stands a good chance for beating Microsoft, especially if Microsoft doesn't start winning the war again (and Im not talking about those Linux attack ads). MS has been playing catch-up with Apple the past few years, if they want to hold their place they're gonna have to start getting back into the game.