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Author Topic: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?  (Read 15258 times)

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Geek-9pm

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We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« on: November 02, 2010, 01:19:36 PM »
U.S. running out of IP addresses, White House issues advisory
(Google it...)
Quote
Many experts agree that we are running out of IP addresses but no one is sure how long we have until it becomes a serious problem. Some have said it could happen as soon as 2010. Is there anything that can be done to keep us from running out of IP addresses? Indeed there is. There is no need to panic as people did when Y2K was looming, but action should be taken.

The most obvious option to prevent running out of IP addresses is switching to a different formula. The good news is that there is already a similar one available, known as IPv6. Using a combination of six integers allows trillions of new numbers to be created, which will help keep us from running out of IP addresses.

http://www.wisegeek.com/are-we-really-running-out-of-ip-addresses.htm
Here is another one:
http://articles.cnn.com/2010-07-23/tech/internet.addresses_1_internet-numbers-ip-addresses-ipv6?_s=PM:TECH
Gag me with a spoon!
and another:
http://www.bizreport.com/2010/09/us-running-out-of-ip-addresses-white-house-issues-advisory.html#

I will  believe it when I see it.





Salmon Trout



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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2010, 01:32:23 PM »
Is this supposed to be news?



patio

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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2010, 04:34:40 PM »
60% of new addys are created by spambots...
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michaewlewis



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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2010, 03:50:45 PM »
Quote
upgrading their systems to IPv6, or "Next Generation Internet" as it's widely known, from the current IPv4 protocol.

I don't think I've ever heard the term "Next Generation Internet". It's always IPv6. Unless I've been living under a rock. ???

Also, (just noticed your title) we are actually running out of IPv4 addresses. That's why there's such a big push for IPv6. But I haven't heard anyone else say that it would be as soon as 2011.

Salmon Trout



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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2010, 04:46:08 PM »
I don't think I've ever heard the term "Next Generation Internet". It's always IPv6. Unless I've been living under a rock. ???

You haven't been living under a rock. That's just junk "gee-whiz" writing from a lazy journalist. If this was Digg I'd digg down the OP.



tonyt42

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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2010, 05:53:06 PM »
I heard something about Internet 2 being developed some time ago at Stanford but very little has come out recently.

Geek-9pm

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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2010, 06:40:26 PM »
INTERNET 2!
You seed nth magic word! Enjoy the video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkeXJ11geas    ;D

BC_Programmer


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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2010, 06:49:31 PM »
I have a nice cache of IPv4 addresses in a storeroom. You see, It's basic supply and demand, if we do run out of IPv4 addresses, I can come in and save the day and sell the stock of IPv4 addresses that I have. At a nice markup, of course.

Let's do the math here ppl

we've got 4 quadrants of 8 bits each; that's 32-bits of space; which, directly, would be about 4.3 billion IP addresses or so.

of course, the 4 quadrants also mean different things; for the most part, we've got the network part and the machine part.

As far as the internet itself is concerned, of course all that will be "counted" in the total would be internet facing addresses. An Internet Facing address is given to a consumer via DHCP by their ISP, from a range of IP addresses that the ISP "owns".

Generally, an ISP often purchases a number of network IPs equal to the expected number of consumers; the 65536 IPs available when they purchase a single network IP (the first part) is often enough for the medium sized companies. and they usually just get a number of them if necessary.

In any case, the entire thing is blown way out of proportion. The actions being taken are no different then when we were "running out of phone numbers" in some cases; most phone numbers are a 3 letter prefix followed by a 4-letter designator; in total, this give you only 10^7 (or 10,000,000) different phone numbers. Clearly, 10 million doesn't even come close to what is done now; so when that "limit" was being approached (and possibly long before it ) they devised the concept of area codes- simply tack on another set of digits in front of the 7 digits, call it an area code and be done with it. This meant that there were 10 million phone numbers for every possible area code; so far, this has proven more then sufficient; the total sum is 10^10, or 10 trillion different phone numbers, which will serve us just fine for the foreseeable future.

That's simply the way any industry like that works; you have an initial launch that has a limitation, but at the time it seems like it will never be reached- 10 million people using phones? bah, impossible. a program that needs more then 640K of memory? ridiculous. unfathomable. The same goes for BIOS limitations regarding hard drive size; at it's core, the limitation isn't with  the technology, but rather the way we represent numbers using that technology. Take LBA and hard drives; basically, a hard drive says "hey, I have this many Logical Blocks" using a defined standard; the limitation here is the size of the number that the hard drive can give back; through the years this has gotten larger and larger, and everytime people figure "well, that's done, we'll never need to make it any bigger" but of course, they do. What it boils down to is us trying to create an infinite number space and store it within a finite space. It's not possible, so we make compromises.

As far as IPv4 is concerned- will we run out? You betcha, of course we will- it's simply the way things go. As long as we continue to reason out stuff like "well, golly gee, that's like the same number of atoms in the universe, we'll never use them all" and then you have companies literally buying out huge chunks of  that seemingly limitless space making it so the number is approached. (this is practically what happened to Ipv4) IPv6 seems limitless- Why would we need that many? I don't know. That's probably what people said when they wondered wether the 4.3 Billion different addresses with IPv4 was enough. At the time it was conceived the internet was hardly the popular everybody uses it all the time thing it is today, so 4.3 billion seemed like a huge, almost unreachable number; something that we would never approach ever. Maybe something new will come along that gobbles up a million IP addresses or something, I don't know, it's unforeseeable.


Lastly, as I've touched on, there is a difference between "used" addresses and "allocated" addresses. Most of the otherwise usable IP addresses were purchased by corporations early on- those count as unallocated, but are unused.


Also, I find this "source" interesting:

http://www.bizreport.com/2010/09/us-running-out-of-ip-addresses-white-house-issues-advisory.html#

truly, all the various sources on this often say that the "proliferation of blackberries, laptops, and so forth" are causing this loss of free internet addresses, while ignoring the fact that such devices get their IP addresses from local LAN networks, most likely a wireless router, and therefore are not using up "any more" IPs- the router is still the only internet facing device.

This in addition to saying that IPv6 is "widely known" as something that almost nobody has heard of, which sort of goes against the meaning of "widely known".


In an interesting twist, all of the news articles and specifically the "white house urging"- basically, if one was to translate it to dialog, their method of solving the problem is this:

Quote
WH: Oh no. we're running out of IP addresses. Don't worry, we know how to fix it! ISPS!
ISPS: yes?
WH: Use IPv6!
ISPS: we've been working on integrating that into our systems for years, it's an ongoing project...
WH: Well, do it faster! Whew, now that we've averted that crisis, what else is on the agenda?

Anyway, it reminded me of this blog post; specifically, the quote from a seventh grader when asked how they would address the nation if they became president:

Quote
Something must be done, and I will make it happen.

The whole situation with news networks and such is equally interesting; basically, they "report" that this is news once every few months, and oddly the proximity to this "limit" never changes. Why just last year I'm quite certain there were reports that the US was within 1% of running out of addresses. Do they just make up random numbers or something?






I was trying to dereference Null Pointers before it was cool.

ThomasTheXPUser



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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2010, 09:16:45 PM »

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Geek-9pm

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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2010, 10:00:41 PM »
Yes, I started this post to show how silly this myth is. It's amazing how the condoms who think they are technical writers are able to fluff up this issue way beyond reality.

There is no shortage of IP addresses in any practical sense. Above BC programmer noted that there are enough available IP addresses in the four byte structure to provide one IP address for every three or  four people living on this planet. It is quite normal for several workstations and users to share a single IP address on the Internet. Typically a server might assign 64 different users to one IP address. And even servers sometimes low volume servers share IP addresses, depending on the traffic and the needs of the companies involved.

Somehow the myth got started that every single workstation server user and device has to have their own unique address on the web. That's not true.

If anybody has questions about this, there are some members of the forum that can explain this in greater detail than I could. But the point is that there is no real need to expand the IP address structure at this time. Maybe someday.

BC_Programmer


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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2010, 12:22:44 AM »
Yes, I started this post to show how silly this myth is. It's amazing how the condoms who think they are technical writers are able to fluff up this issue way beyond reality.
Amazing, yes, but not that surprising, when you think about it.

Quote
But the point is that there is no real need to expand the IP address structure at this time. Maybe someday.

Exactly; ipv6 should be something that should be integrated more slowly; if they try to switch as fast as these so-called technical writers seem to encourage, All we'll end up with is a buggy and useless implementation of something that doesn't really add any features to the previous version. Thankfully, software, hardware, and networking companies aren't run by technical writers, so they actually know what the situation is.
I was trying to dereference Null Pointers before it was cool.

michaewlewis



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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2010, 09:49:38 AM »
I'm just curious where you guys get your ideas about IPv4 not being used up in the near future..... I mean all of the companies that are looked to as network authorities are pushing IPv6. This is actually the first time I've heard about anyone questioning the exhaustion of IPv4. If anyone's got any real evidence, I'd like to hear about it, but so far, I think it's just speculation.
www.iana.org
www.arin.net, https://www.arin.net/knowledge/v4-v6.html
www.cisco.com

Geek-9pm

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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2010, 10:19:01 PM »
michaewlewis,

Should I have to offer proofs that the issue of IP for saturation is an exaggeration? No, rather those  for  radical change to should offer convincing working models that prove change will be beneficial for all. They cannot. Because not all will benefit.
This should remain a technical issue and not be elevated to a political issue. Technically speaking the IP4 and IP6 are mutually exclusive. They are incompatible. It is very irresponsible of journalist to elevate this question to the level of a crisis situation. There is no easy solution. Well, really there is, but nobody seems to like it or accept it. Let me say it in purple.

At the present time there are, in effect, to global networks in place. One is the network that we all enjoy, and the other is a private network used by large corporations and they use IP6 or whatever they want to send large amounts of data in one place to another.

There are many, many different references you can find on the subject. The danger here is that individuals will have little experience in networking and  take something out of context and elevated to a global issue without understanding the impact that their words may have on others. I have lived in Third World countries and I am very sensitive to any changes in technology that puts the developing countries at a disadvantage. A massive overhaul of the Internet to a new low level layer would be a great burden to all the Internet providers and the developing countries. They would effectively have to buy new equipment.
But can the problem be solved at the software level? Yes, and it already has. The present standards used on the World Wide Web provide for different protocols in different layers. What we're talking about here in this context is a protocol in the lower level. It is not necessary to change lower-level protocol. The issues can be resolved at upper levels. At a small loss in performance.
I have been trying to think of an illustration to explain this, but there are none. That is because the public packet switching network is one of the most sophisticated and advanced data transport system that mankind has ever developed for wide global use.. It did not come about by just some hit and miss guesses. It required considerable study and research by brilliant man who had a firm grasp of the technical issues involved. The present system works, and works very well. Saturation of the IP4 address space can be resolved at the upper levels. And that is how it is currently being done.
Theoretically, there could be a performance increase for companies that have large amounts of data to transfer. Let them continue establish their own networks at their own expense. And leave the existing public packet switching system for the rest of us.
If you need references as to why this is true. There are many, many of them out there. But to understand the issues you first have to have an understanding that we  not really talking about just a single protocol. Or talking about a component as part of an entire system. The system works as it is. Changing the one low-level component puts a tremendous burden on everybody that already has invested in routers and servers and similar equipment. Anyone who wants to do more research in this is just a do a Google  search on the keywords and come up with lots of articles that delve into the both the technical and social implications of making a radical change at this time.
By the way, I am no longer active in the industry and stay at home because I have both my old age and very serious visual handicap. So I dictate through speech recognition and that accounts for some of the strange syntax you may see. Regardless of my poor writing skills, I do understand the topic. I just wish that people who had good writing skills would spend more time trying to understand the subject before they make recommendations to others.

End of rant. For now at least.   :)

Salmon Trout



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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2010, 02:31:26 AM »
There is no shortage of IP addresses in any practical sense.

As of October 2010 predictions of exhaustion date of the unallocated IANA pool seem to converge to between January 2011 and January 2012. After the IANA pool exhaustion, each RIR will be able to supply from their last assigned addresses for another 8 months after IANA exhaustion, when at least one of the RIRs is expected to be depleted. At this point hosts will appear on the Internet that are only addressable by IPv6.


BC_Programmer


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Re: We are not running out of IP numbers. -Right?
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2010, 08:45:51 AM »
As of October 2010 predictions of exhaustion date of the unallocated IANA pool seem to converge to between January 2011 and January 2012.

Couldn't they say December 2012 and give the doomsayers a bit more to work with?  ;D
I was trying to dereference Null Pointers before it was cool.